NBA Finals: Game 2 statistical prediction for LeBron James


LeBron James
According to my numbers, James might have a big night. But his team won’t come out with a victory.

I did a prediction about a week ago predicting LeBron James’ numbers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I was almost spot-on. He finished with 30 points, 13 rebounds, two assists, one block, and two steals. He shot 11-25 from the, 2-6 from three-point range, and 6-8 from the line. If you want to see what I predicted, just click here. Well, I am at it again. I predicted LeBron’s numbers for tonight’s Game 2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Also, I included the data I used to help me predict what his numbers will be. Hope you enjoy it. (It might be a little hard to follow but it is hard to show and explain every step).

I used data from the last four MVP’s who made it to the NBA Finals in the same year they were voted league MVP. The players are Shaquille O’Neal, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, and Kobe Bryant. I included every player’s Game 2 box score and what percentage of every stat they accumulated for their team. Here are their box scores:

1999-2000

Shaquille O’Neal: 11-18 from the field, 18-39 ft, 40 pts, 24 rebs, 4 ast, 0 stl, 2 to 3 blks, 5 pf. His team won the game 111-104 at home. He scored 36.036% (111) of the points, grabbed 51% of the rebounds (47), dished-out 13.79% of the assists (29), blocked 37.5% of the shots (8), had 22.22% of the turnovers (9 turnovers), and committed, 19.2% of the fouls (26). He took 24% of the shots (75 total shots), making 30.5% of the shots (36 made). He took 68.4% of the ft (57 total), making 56.25% of them (32 total). 15 3-pt taken. Team had 3 steals.

2000-2001

Allen Iverson: 10-29 from the field, 3-10 from 3-pt, 0-4 ft, 23 pts, 4 rebs, 3 ast, 1 stl, 3 to, 3 pf. His team lost the game on the road 98-89. He scored 25.84% of the points, grabbed .095% of the rebounds (42 total rebounds), dished-out 18.75% of the assists (16 total assists), had 11.11% of the steals (9 total steals), committed 27.27% of the turnovers (11 total turnovers) and had 13.04% of the personal fouls (23 total fouls). He took 33.33% of the shots (87 total shots), making 29.41% of the total field goals (34 made field goals. He took 66.67% of the 3-pointers (15 total 3-pointers), making 50% of the total 3-pointers (6 made 3-pointers). He attempted 15.38% of the total free-throws (26 attempted), and made 0% of the total free-throws (15 made). Team had 5 blocks.

2002-2003

Tim Duncan: 8-19 fg, 0-1 3pt, 3-10 ft, 19 pts, 12 rebs, 3 ast, 3 blks, 4 to, 3 pf. His team lost the game at home, 87-85. Duncan scored 22.35% of the team’s points, grabbed 27.90% of the team’s rebounds (43 total rebounds), had 17.65% of the team’s assists (17 total assists), had 42.85% of the team’s blocks (7 blocks), had 19.04% of the team’s turnovers (21 turnovers), and committed 18.75% of the team’s fouls (16 fouls). Duncan attempted 27.94% of the team’s shots (68 total shots) and made 24.24% of the team’s field goals (33 made field goals), He attempted .0769% of his team’s 3-pters, making 0% of them (13 attempted; 5 made). He shot 40% of the team’s ft’s (25), making 21.42% of the team’s ft’s (14 made ft’s). Team had 6 steals.

2007-2008

Kobe Bryant: 11-23 fg, 1-3 3pt, 7-7 ft, 30 pts, 4 reb, 8 ast, 3 stl, 0 blk, 4 to, 3 pf. His team lost the game on the road, 108-102. Bryant scored 29.41% of his team’s points, grabbed 11.11% of the team’s rebounds (36 rebounds), had 40% of his team’s assists (20 assists), and had 37.5% of his team’s steals (8 total steals), 30.76% of his team’s turnovers (13 total turnovers) and 10.71% of his team’s fouls (28 fouls). Bryant attempted 27.71% of his team’s shots (83 total shots), making 26.82% of his team’s total field goals (41 made field goals). He attempted 14.28% of his team’s 3-pters (21 attempts), making 10% of his team’s 3-pters (10 makes), and he attempted 70% of his team’s ft’s (10 attempts), making 70% of the ft’s (10 makes). Team had one block.

I then totaled up all the data for the individual players and divided by four (because there are four players):

TOTALS

INDIVIDUAL

40-89 fg, 4-14 3-pt, 13.33-28 ft, 112 pts, 44 rebs, 18 ast, 4 stl, 6 blk, 13 to, 14 pf

Divided by 4

10-22.25 fg, 1-3.5 3-pt, 3.33-7 ft, 28 pts, 11 rebs, 4.5 asts, 1 stl, 1.5 blk, 3.25 to, 3.5 pf

Then I took their team’s statistics and did the same thing:

TEAM

144-313 fg, 16-64 3-pt, 70.66-95.67 ft, 387 pts, 168 rebs, 82 asts, 26 stls, 21 blocks, 54 turnovers, 93 pf’s.

Divided by 4

36-78.25 fg, 4-16 3-pt, 17.665-23.917 ft, 96.75 pts, 42 rebs, 20.5 asts, 6.5 stls, 5.25 blocks, 13.5 turnovers, 23.25 pf’s.

Then, to figure out what LeBron might do I added up all the percentages of a particular category, divided by four, and then multiplied that number by the team number of the same category. For example: if the percentages of field goals made equals 100%, I took 100% divided by 4 and that gave me 25%. I took 25% and multiplied that number by the number of field goals a team made on average (let’s say 36) .25% x 36 = 9 made field goals. I did that for every category and here is what I came up with.

Points = 113.636% divided by 4= 28.409% X 96.75=27.5 points

Rebounds = 90.105% divided by 4 = 22.52% x 42 = 9.45 rebounds

Assists = 90.19% divided by 4 = 22.54% x 20.5 = 4.62 assists

Steals = 48.61% divided by 4 = 12.15% x 6.5 = .789 steals

Blocks = 80.35% divided by 4 = 20.0875 x 5.25 = 1.05 blocks

Turnovers = 99.29% divided by 4 = 24.82 x 13.5 = 3.35 turnovers

Fouls = 61.7% divided by 4 = 15.425 x 23.25 = 3.58 fouls

Field goals made = 110.97% divided by 4 = 27.74 x 36 = 9.98 field goals made

Field goals attempted = 112.98% divided by 4 = 28.245 x 78.25 = 22.10 field goals attempted

3-pters made = 60% divided 4 = 15% x 4 = .6 3-pters made

3-pters attempted = 81.02% divided by 4 = 20.255 x 16 = 3.24 3-pters attempted

Free-throws made = 147.67% divided by 4 = 36.917 x 17.75 = 6.55 free-throws made

Free-throws attempted = 193.78% divided by 4 = 48.445 x 29.5 = 14.29 free-throws made (data for free-throws attempted is skewed because Shaquille O’Neal attempted 39 free-throws in a game). So I am going to re-do the Free-throws attempted and made and add up the free-throw totals from the other three players, divide that total by three and use that number as my fourth number.

Free-throws made = 138.99% divided by 4 = 34.74% x 17.665 = 6.13 free-throws made

Free-throws attempted = 154.64% divided by = 38.66% x 23.917 = 9.24 free-throws attempted

I didn’t get even numbers for all my data, but that doesn’t mean I can give myself any lee-way. He will score 27 points, grab 9 rebounds, hand out 4 assists, steal one pass, block one shot, commit 3 turnovers, and commit 3 fouls. He will do all of that on 10-22 shooting, 1-3 from three-point range, and 6-9 from the line.

I also have the Thunder winning the game. Hope you guys enjoy the game!

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